Our accompanying Dynamic population model, improvements to data sources and methodology for local authorities England and Wales: 2011 to 2022 methodology sets out the developments in data sources and methodology since releasing those case study estimates. In November 2022 we provided provisional population estimates for 14 case study local authorities. This reflects that they are not a finalised estimate, but feed into the DPM where the strengths of the SPD are used alongside other data sources to produce coherent and timely estimates from admin data. The previously published admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) were re-branded as Statistical Population Datasets (SPD).
In July 2022 we introduced the dynamic population model (DPM) as our future proposal for producing timely, coherent population statistics. We are researching new ways to produce population and social statistics. However, the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has underlined the need for more timely population estimates and we are committed to maximising the use of administrative data to increase efficiency by making the best use of data that are already available. The census and our census-based mid-year estimates provide the best picture of population at a moment in time. The census has evolved over time, providing a snapshot every 10 years into who we are and how we live. Overview of the admin-based population estimates using the dynamic population model Transforming population statistics The DPM model and resulting ABPEs show promise and our next steps include further development of our methods and the data with a focus on measuring and understanding quality we welcome feedback from users about these estimates and our methods.Ģ. We have explored different versions of the model and have shown the need to incorporate a robust coverage adjustment method while this work is under development, we have demonstrated to users what the ABPEs could look like in the future in the absence of a census. The initial, provisional estimates for mid-2022 have been produced four months earlier than the official statistics produced from the current mid-year estimates (MYE) process.ĪBPE best estimates for June 2022 give a total England and Wales population of 60,134,268 people: a 0.8% increase on the June 2021 estimates, with the largest increases in London local authorities. We have used the DPM to produce admin-based population estimates (ABPEs) for mid-year 2011 to 2022 for all 331 local authorities in England and Wales. We are continuing to develop our research into the new dynamic population model (DPM), which aims to estimate population and population change in a timely way, to better respond to user needs.
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